Gabriele Olivo/Telefonica Blue/Volvo Ocean Race
But it seems that strategically, there may be more than one way to skin this particular cat ...
Friday 21 November 2008 10:00 GMT
THE TEN ZULU REPORT: LEG 2, DAY 7
By Mark Chisnell
It’s the sting in the tail of the changing wind conditions as the fleet head north-east in a north-westerly breeze of around 20 knots. The wind is on the beam - this is full power reaching, hard, fast and about as wet as it gets for those still to the south.
But with the rest of the points awarded at the scoring gate – reinforcing Ericsson 4’s position at the top of the charts - the latitude dial is steadily clocking down on the long journey north, and as conditions become less edgy and the temperature rises, the focus is fast shifting to the traps for the unwary that lie ahead.
At 10:00 ZULU there was no shortage of leverage, over a 130 miles between the north-west wing, and the south-eastern flank of the fleet. Dominating the front row are the Ericsson boats, Anders Lewander and his Nordic crew on E3 being the most north-easterly, while Torben Grael and his boys on Ericsson 4 are over 60 miles to their south-east – no team orders there then.
The second row is anchored by PUMA to the north-west, then going south-east we have Telefonica Black, Telefonica Blue, Green Dragon, Team Russia and Delta Lloyd.
After yesterday’s technical frenzy (without so much as a technical content warning in sight, sorry about that), things are a little simpler this morning.
PUMA is no longer a building site
The focus is on the lane changes in the last 24 hours – which you can see clearly on the Race Viewer. As the navigators and skippers search for the right True Wind Angle (TWA in the Data Centre) and sail combination to get them around the high pressure ridge that lies ahead.
The highlight of which has been skipper, Roberto Bermudez, and navigator, Matt Gregory, taking Delta Lloyd all the way from the western to the eastern wing of the fleet – albeit it in a straight line. Meanwhile, a relieved and happy Ken Read also emailed last night from a PUMA that’s no longer a building site. But I think the damage has impacted on their tactics – although they’ve stayed to the west of the fleet, they’ve done some big course changes.
After their gybe the night before last, PUMA sailed a north-easterly course, rather than east – which wasn’t closing them on the gate as fast, and allowed Telefonica Blue and Black to slip through for the gate points. But yesterday morning PUMA returned to a more easterly course, before switching back in the evening to going north-east. Certainly, a triumphant Bouwe Bekking was confused about their strategy.
But I think the repair (which Bekking has no knowledge of), and the need to nurse the boat north, away from the incoming low pressure, and then get east, to dodge the growing high pressure, explains their actions.
A quick look at today’s graph shows you the difference in True Wind Speed (TWS) across the race course yesterday. There’s been a lot more breeze for boats to the south and the west. This is the impact of the big low pressure system down that way (which you can also see on the Race Viewer, click on the ‘three wind arrows’ icon in the title bar). Matt Gregory explains in his latest email that they have been focused on India for a couple of days, and presumably this is the result – he’s gone after the breeze from the low pressure.
Ericsson 3 seem much more focused on getting north
Others, like Ericsson 3, seem much more focused on getting north. It’s all about getting round the high pressure zone ahead of them and getting into the trade winds – as we explained in yesterday’s TEN ZULU. But what’s interesting about the latest Predicted Routing is that the leverage may not matter.
The basic situation hasn’t changed from yesterday’s run through the Deckman for Windows. Sail north-east on the north-westerly breeze on the leading edge of the cold front. Wait for the wind to back (rotate anti-clockwise) all the way round to the south as the boats slide round the eastern side of the high (we’re in the southern hemisphere, with the wind flowing anti-clockwise round the centre, so positioned at three o’clock, the wind is blowing from the south) and you’re into the south-easterly trade winds and away. This should all happen over the weekend.
But if we look at the Predicted Routes for the boats out on the wings of the fleet they are together in five days time (the most northerly isochrones – horizontal lines). Check out Ericsson 3 (blue line) and Ericsson 4 (orange), in the corners of the front row, and PUMA (red) and Team Russia (yellow) on the flanks of the second row. Although there’s a big separation in three days time (the middle isochrone), a couple of days later they are back together (I’m not sure what’s going on with Telefonica Blue, but that obviously isn’t right ...).
The numbers in the Predicted Data Table in the Data Centre back this up. They give a slight advantage to Ericsson 4 (to the south-east) over Ericsson 3 in five days time, but then give the edge to PUMA (to the north-west) over Team Russia.
So the gains are small, and it’s all going to be about the execution of the plan through a tricky transition zone from north-westerly to south-easterly breeze – sails, angles, gear changes. But it seems that strategically, there may be more than one way to skin this particular cat ...
The TEN ZULU REPORT (so called because it follows the 10:00 GMT fleet position report, and Zulu is the meteorologist's name for GMT).