Oskar Kihlborg/Volvo Ocean Race
Saturday, 25 October 2008 07:00:00
As mentioned in the last update, the safest route for the Southern Atlantic part of this leg will see the teams head south down the coast of Brazil before turning east and reaching/running across to Cape Town. This route will mean sailing more miles, but it also minimizes the risk of getting stuck in the light winds at the center of the high, and ensures mostly downwind sailing for the fleet. Nevertheless, the tactics for this part of the leg are not straightforward.
Like any other weather feature the South Atlantic high is not stationary. Currently the high is further south and east than usual and it will continue to move south and east over the next 24 hours. By 12Z on Saturday the center of the high will be almost due south of Cape Town, with a large ridge extending northwest toward Rio de Janeiro. As the fleet continues south they will see their winds back steadily from SE’ly to E’ly and eventually going as far left as N’ly. Then at some point on Sunday, the fleet is likely to run into a patch of light air as they sail into the ridge itself.
The slowdown should not last long however, by the beginning of next week the high will have re-developed in the center of the South Atlantic Basin and a series of strong lows moving east towards the Cape of Good Hope will act to increase the Westerly pressure gradient in the southern Atlantic.
By 1200 GMT on Sunday one of these lows will be centered near 30W and about 40S, with a cold front extending northwest from the center of the low. If the Fleet were a few days further down the rhumb line, the strong Westerly pressure gradient around the top of this low would have made for a great ride east. Nevertheless, it looks like the next low will be timed perfectly, moving off the coast early next week, just in time to give the fleet a fast ride east.
For the next two days at least there is little question that the fleet will continue south; however, there is no doubt the navigators are carefully studying the weather maps and planning the ideal time and place to start heading east.