Oskar Kihlborg/Volvo Ocean Race
Saturday 10 January, 2009 01:00 GMT
SYNOPSIS: Tropical weather will continue to dominate the conditions in Singapore. As a result you can expect mostly overcast conditions, with light to moderate winds, and a chance of showers or squalls through the afternoon.
Looking at the large scale synoptic picture, a fading N'ly pressure gradient will dominate the conditions for the in-port race. The gradient will be slightly weaker than yesterday, and any stronger winds will be slow to mix down to the surface. As a result look for some morning gusts, fading to a midday lull, and then building again with afternoon mixing.
Other than the fading N'ly gradient, the synoptic map is very quiet. Over the last several days, a small low has been developing to the northeast of the course area, but this low has stalled and will have little to no influence today. Likewise the continued overcast conditions will keep any thermal influences to a minimum.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Any morning gusts will fade quickly, with decreasing winds expected for the start of today's race. Initially there may be a few NNW'ly gusts. These could build briefly to the low teens, but will drop back to less than 10 knots by the start of racing. Then, after a midday lull, look for the winds to veer right building again for the late afternoon. The winds could build to a max in the high teens. WEATHER: Look for overcast conditions all day; however, there is only a small chance of rain. Any squalls you do have are likely to be short lived, with a burst of stronger winds followed by a short period of heavy rain. Any squalls you do have will move south over Singapore, and are most likely at the end of the day. The daytime high should be in the mid 20sC. Detailed Wind Forecast for (1/10/2009):
Wind Speed Wind Direction (true)Time(LT) Mean Range Mean Range0900 08 07-12 345 340-010 . may see some NNW'ly gusts early1000 07 06-11 350 340-010 . midday lull may drop to 5 knots 1100 06 05-10 350 340-010 1200 07 06-11 355 340-010 . right shift as winds build1300 08 07-12 000 340-010 . more oscillations with gusts 1400 10 08-13 005 340-020 . more the winds go right the more stable they will be1500 11 09-14 010 340-020 1600 13 11-16 010 340-020 1700 14 11-16 005 340-020 . Peak gusts in the high teens 1800 12 10-15 005 340-020 HEDGE: Forecast Confidence -Average.
1. While there is good model agreement for a continued N'ly pressure gradient, my confidence remains only average, with many localized features influencing today's conditions.
2. With a N'ly pressure gradient look for the winds to be less especially in the morning when they are blowing offshore. The more of a right trend you see in the afternoon, and the further you are from shore the more stable the wind direction will be.
3. Any morning gusts will fade quickly and you may see a sustained midday lull with the wind speeds in the single digits. 4. The more sun you have the more mixing you can expect and the more the afternoon winds will increase. Likewise the more of a right shift you see in the winds, the more you can expect the velocities to build.
5. While the chance of rain showers is low, you could see a late afternoon squall. Any squalls will move south over Singapore, and will be short lived.
Looking ahead
SUNDAY: Slightly more sun is expected on Sunday, with slightly lower wind speeds. The winds will fill out of the NW for the morning and veer right through the afternoon, with less build expected than Saturday. Look for peak winds speeds between 10 and 12 knots in the morning decreasing for the afternoon. For the late afternoon you may see the winds go as far right as NNE'ly. Temperatures will build to the upper 20s C.
MONDAY: While you may see some breaks of sun early morning, the chance of showers or squalls will increase on Monday. Watch for thunderstorms through the early afternoon, with localized wind gusts and shifts. Otherwise, the winds will back more to WNW'ly staying between 10 and 14 knots all day.
TUESDAY: For now Tuesday looks much like Monday, with some clearing in the morning and a chance of afternoon squalls. The winds are likely to stay in the low teens out of the NW.
Jennifer Lilly